One argument in favor of evolution can be surmised in the follow popular debate:

It has been estimated that the probability of an RNA molecule being formed out of the chemical reactions present in the primordial Earth's atmosphere, which contained all the chemicals necessary to make an RNA molecule, is roughly equivalent to the probability of throwing a deck of cards in the air and having all the cards land in four piles in distinct suits, in numerical order - billions to one against. However, if you were to perform this experiment thousands of times a second for three billion years, you would find that the probability was that at some point, it would happen - it's almost inescapable. And so it was with RNA: over that length of time, with such reactions happening thousands of times a second, all around the planet, sure enough an RNA molecule formed. Do the math. You'll come up with an almost 1:1 probability of abiogenesis succeeding. And it did. Occam's Razor indicates that no other causative factor for the genesis of life is required.

Therefore, the probability that an RNA molecule can come into being spontaneously over 3 billion years in the right atmosphere, which is about a 99.9999% probability, also proves the nonexistence of, or at the very least, the lack of any requirement for any creator to a certainty of about 4 sigma: a 99.9999% probability that no creator exists.

In response to the argument, the following eradicates the possibility of the above premise:

Let's suppose we have 10 small blank discs. We number them from 1 – 10 and as we do we throw each into a bucket. So in this example, the question is: How many attempts would it take to randomly draw out the discs in order from 1 to 10? Only one disc is randomly selected from the bucket at a time, noted, and tossed back in the bucket. What is the probability of selecting all ten discs in order?

Since each disc has only one number on it, there is one chance in ten (1/10) of selecting it. The probability of selecting the first one followed by the second one is 1/10 x 1/10 or 1 in 100. To select all 10 in the right order the probability is 1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 or 1x1010. This means that the discs would be selected in the right order only once in 10 billion attempts.

Put another way, ‘chance’ requires 10 billion attempts, on the average, to count from 1 to 10.

Let's take that example one step further and say there is a bucket with 27 wooden squares inside. Each square has one letter of the alphabet on it and one square is blank. How many attempts would it take to randomly pull letters out one at a time in order to spell the phrase ‘the theory of evolution?’ Each letter of the alphabet plus one space has 1 chance in 27 of being selected. There are 20 letters plus 3 spaces in the phrase ‘the theory of evolution’. Therefore chance will, on the average, spell the given phrase correctly only once in 2723 outcomes.

This computes to only one success in a mind-boggling 8.3 hundred quadrillion, quadrillion attempts (8.3 x 1032).

Suppose ‘chance’ uses a machine which removes, records and replaces all the letters randomly at the fantastic speed of one billion per microsecond (one quadrillion per second)! On average the phrase would happen once in 25 billion years. If, as evolutionists would have us believe, the earth has been in existence for approximately 5 billion years, then nature could not even have created even this simple sentence, much less any protein, even at this phenomenal rate of experimentation.

The information on the discs and squares in the examples above represent the genetic information in DNA. DNA is the storehouse of genetics that establishes each organism's physical characteristics. It wasn't until 2001 that the Human Genome Project and Celera Genomics jointly presented the true nature and complexity of the digital code inherent in DNA. We now know that the DNA molecule is comprised of chemical bases arranged in approximately 3 billion precise sequences. Even the DNA molecule for the single-celled bacterium, E. coli, contains enough information to fill an entire set of Encyclopedia Britannica.

It would take nature 25 billion years to create the correct sequence of 27 letters. Clearly, it could not have correctly sequenced 3 billion chemicals to make even the simplest life form. So if nature couldn’t create life, Who did?

Regarding the probabilities calculated by Morowitz, Robert Shapiro wrote:"The improbability involved in generating even one bacterium is so large that it reduces all considerations of time and space to nothingness. Given such odds, the time until the black holes evaporate and the space to the ends of the universe would make no difference at all. If we were to wait, we would truly be waiting for a miracle."

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